Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.017154 0.019434 0.021907 0.024790 0.028060 0.031656 0.035913
2025-07-20 0.013723 0.016891 0.020626 0.025356 0.031196 0.038178 0.047176
2025-07-27 0.011939 0.015556 0.020069 0.026122 0.034043 0.044080 0.057801
2025-08-03 0.010334 0.014102 0.019027 0.025948 0.035449 0.048073 0.066187
2025-08-10 0.009164 0.013017 0.018258 0.025927 0.036901 0.052096 0.074840
2025-08-17 0.008093 0.011913 0.017297 0.025466 0.037594 0.055020 0.082110
2025-08-24 0.007428 0.011296 0.016930 0.025766 0.039339 0.059514 0.091991
2025-08-31 0.006742 0.010565 0.016305 0.025584 0.040293 0.062855 0.100363
2025-09-07 0.006336 0.010215 0.016205 0.026171 0.042446 0.068158 0.112231
2025-09-14 0.005671 0.009385 0.015272 0.025333 0.042220 0.069644 0.118002
2025-09-21 0.005197 0.008816 0.014699 0.025011 0.042778 0.072400 0.126071
2025-09-28 0.004696 0.008155 0.013912 0.024249 0.042508 0.073713 0.131726
2025-10-05 0.004529 0.008059 0.014077 0.025154 0.045227 0.080428 0.147633
2025-10-12 0.004324 0.007876 0.014077 0.025769 0.047489 0.086542 0.163058
2025-10-19 0.004162 0.007753 0.014168 0.026545 0.050099 0.093483 0.180639
2025-10-26 0.003876 0.007378 0.013767 0.026369 0.050904 0.097138 0.192258
2025-11-02 0.003639 0.007071 0.013464 0.026348 0.051988 0.101392 0.205408
2025-11-09 0.003367 0.006674 0.012956 0.025878 0.052146 0.103849 0.215149
2025-11-16 0.003212 0.006491 0.012846 0.026183 0.053868 0.109522 0.231988
2025-11-23 0.003014 0.006206 0.012510 0.025998 0.054566 0.113171 0.244887
2025-11-30 0.002915 0.006114 0.012552 0.026595 0.056938 0.120454 0.266245
2025-12-07 0.002677 0.005714 0.011933 0.025744 0.056149 0.121010 0.272859
2025-12-14 0.002509 0.005449 0.011572 0.025416 0.056462 0.123937 0.285025